From: "PETER MANDELSON" To: "[email protected]" [email protected]> Subject: Fw: Date: Sun, 20 Dec 2009 12:24:24 +0000 - - On Sun, 20/12/09, PETER MANDELSON <j l > wrote: THE STRATEGY YOU HAVE SAID YOU WANT IS ONE THAT MOVES FROM REFERENDUM TO CHOICE. THIS IS RIGHT. WE WANT TO GET PEOPLE TO THE POINT OF FEELING THAT, AT HEART, LABOUR IS MORE IN THEIR INTERESTS; THE TORIES ARE A RISK; AND THAT DESPITE THEIR MISGIVINGS ABOUT VOTING BACK A GOVT THAT HAS BEEN IN OFFICE FOR THIRTEEN YEARS, THEY ARE MORE AT EASE WITH THE PRESENT TEAM THAN ONE THAT IS UNTESTED AND UNCERTAIN. WE HAVE TO RECOGNISE WE ARE A LONG WAY FROM ACHIEVING THIS ELECTORAL JUDGEMENT. I CANNOT SAY FOR SURE WHERE THE POLLS WILL GO IN COMING WEEKS BUT MY HUNCH IS THAT THE MORE THE TORIES FIRM UP ON THEIR POLICY OFFER (WHICH THEY ARE LIKELY TO DO IN LIGHT OF OUR "POLICY-FREE" TAUNTS OF THEM) THE MORE VOTERS WILL FIRM UP THEIR SUPPORT FOR THE ALTERNATIVE (UNLESS CAMERON DOES SOMETHING VERY STUPID ON POLICY WHICH IS UNLIKELY). TORY SPLITS ON POLICY ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. INSTEAD THEY WILL RIDE THE MOOD FOR CHANGE, SHARPENING IT AS THEY GO, PLAYING DOWN THE MISTAKE THEY MADE AT THEIR CONFERENCE OF TELLING PEOPLE HOW AUSTERE TORY GOVT WILL BE. AGAINST THIS, WE WILL HOPE FOR BRIGHTENING ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AS WE PICK UP POSITIVE GROWTH AND THE CHANCE OF ABETTER THE DEVIL YOU KNOW' CONCLUSION. AS THINGS STAND NOW, HOWEVER, I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL BRING US BACK OUR LOST 'NEW LABOUR' COALITION VOTERS. OUR 'CORE' VOTE WILL FIRM UP AND BRING US TO A STEADY 30% BUT THIS WILL NOT BE NEARLY ENOUGH IN OUR MARGINALS WHERE OUR SUPPORT HAS ERODED MORE THAN THE NATIONAL POLLS INDICATE. THERE IS A FURTHER DANGER. THIS IS THAT OUR 'DIVIDING LINES' MINDSET AND RHETORIC ALIENATES OUR LOST VOTERS EVEN MORE BECAUSE IT IS TOO CRUDE, TOO POPULIST, TOO ANTI-WEALTHY AND THEREFORE COMES ACROSS AS POPULIST AND ANTI-ASPIRATIONAL. I BELIEVE THAT 'FAIRNESS AGAINST PRIVILEGE' IS A STRONG LABOUR TEM