HOUSE OVERSIGHT 030866 Our S&P targets and sector strategy assume a balanced outcome from the US general election on Nov 8th that maintains the current split in power. However, if Democrats keep the Presidency and take Senate or Republicans take the Presidency and keep Senate, it likely brings policy uncertainty and market volatility. Longer-term, it will be the policies and implementation that will influence markets, which both parties, many individuals and circumstances will craft. This note identifies sectors, industries and stocks that we think would be price sensitive to an unbalanced election outcome tilted toward one party. Dividing issues: Taxes, trade, favored infrastructure types and monetary policy It's difficult to pin down specific policies from either candidate, but on several economic issues their general bias is clear. These issues include taxes, trade deals, favored types of infrastructure — such as green vs conventional energy, preference for monetary policy, and also their expressed views on industries such as Health Care and Energy. It is the gist of the candidate's preference on these issues that we used to identify sectors and stocks sensitive to a sweep. Big banks might outperform small banks and oil might go down on Rep sweep While many of our conclusions align with conventional judgment, we think we differ in that we think a Rep sweep could: 1) be good for some domestic oil producers, as it should permit more drilling, but negative to the recovery in oil and gas prices, as more supply, and thus negative for the broad Energy sector, 2) bring somewhat faster Fed hikes and a stronger dollar than otherwise, 3) the first two could lead to lower inflation and a flatter yield curve than otherwise would be. One could argue that Trump sized tax cuts and an infrastructure and defense spending spree would steepen the curve, but we think this unlikely while Republicans control the House. If Fed hikes bring yield curve flattening then