market thoughts U.S. inflation is not yet troubling U.S. CP] YoY NSA There is an awful lot being written about the next bursting 4% bubble, which, according to pundits, is fixed income. The 3% fear is either that inflation very quickly begins to sg reaccelerate because of monetary policy and central banks ; will need to aggressively slam on the policy brakes, or that "% investors are going to begin a Great Rotation out of fixed a income. “1% The Great Rotation scare being talked about argues that ” individual investors will apparently all wake up one day and i 2010 2014 2012 collectively sell their bonds to buy stocks. For individual _ investors, it’s very unlikely that we will see selling of core poles: ee oe of Labor Statistigs, bonds until investors actually lose money—and we don’t expect that to happen soon. In our portfolios next year, we envision owning more world equity markets, and owning less cash and short-duration fixed income. So | agree with = We invest with a 12-month outlook, but also take advantage the risk rotation, but a mad dash by individual investors out of short-term trading opportunities. But to borrow a phrase of fixed income seems unnecessary and unlikely. from my daughter, patience is the key to joy. Into year-end, . . . markets face higher uncertainty and weaker activity. We are The balancing act for central banks IS iG Try to stimulate going to see more headlines, unfortunately with less real eTown mntTDU BPOWGKINE InFaLtG, TIMENE ts engugh dae news. In the short term, both issues will extract a higher risk capacity mM labor Mardis tat the p/ealer policy aeeTo premia from risk assets, which should create some remains disinflationary pressure. While we are keeping a ; we . . . . interesting opportunities. close eye on inflation expectations, which have been rising, our economics team continues to believe inflation | For where we believe the macro cycle is right now, we comes after growth and therefore isn’t a threat to this want to be incr