market thoughts Our core macro view remains that the global economy disciplined and investing only where you see the most continues to muddle through. We see U.S. growth between value. What was even more interesting is that while some of +1.5% and 2.0%, Europe continuing to work its way out of this is obviously cyclical, there appears to be a structural recession, and emerging economies growing +4%-5%, led pattern here as well. by China as growth moves to a more sustainable trend-like +7%-8%. Global growth next year should be somewhere =—- © elation across risk assets has risen between +2.5% and 3%. = China has just gone through a major political transition. We 0.70 7 expect the new Government to focus on reform initiatives 866 and inward investment. As my team in Hong Kong continues to remind me, 7% growth feels pretty good. 0.50 There simply isn’t the sense of concern or urgency in aa China as there has been outside the country around a Chinese hard landing. It’s a domestic economy that is 0 maturing, which is exactly what we expect to see ahead. 0.20 With the U.S. election behind us, we believe there should be TOOT 1999. 1998 TOT TEE 2001 2003 2008 2007 2009 2011 little doubt across markets that until inflation becomes a Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Bloomberg. Data as of November 2012. meaningful concern, central banks will continue to make holding cash and core bonds frustrating for investors—slowly Why is this relevant? Because it helps explain why we’ve pushing investors to take on incremental risk across markets. been comfortable barbelling the risk we’ve taken across But like deleveraging, increased risk taking needs to bea portfolios this year with a significant overweight to credit process, not an event. markets; it’s allowed us to own less equities for similar returns. Effectively, we’ve been able to take normal levels of risk in portfolios but focus on the higher certainty of those returns coming from yield rather than I’m a pragmatist in life and a