Eye on the Market | November 21, 2011 J.P Morgan Topic: The quixotic search for energy solutions Question #3: What if the world ends up relying on coal forthe next 100 Question #4: What would be the reduction in gasoline needs if the entire U.S. years, and seeks to prevent further increases in carbon emissions. How cornharvest not already used for ethanol were repurposed for more ethanol? large an undertaking is it to bury 15% of all CO2 emissions? 160,000,000 US corn harvest, tonnes, 2010, not already used for ethanol 33.2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions (2010) 159,667,200,000 US corn harvest, kg, not already used for ethanol 5.0 Sequestration target, billions of tonnes 0.40 Conversion ratio, liters of ethanol per kg Now let's shrink the CO 2 by compressing it before burying it... 63,866,880,000 Liters of converted ethanol 0.80 Compressed gas density, tonnes per cubic meter 67% Energy density of ethanol relative to gasoline 6.2 Volume of compressed CO, to bury, billions of cubic meters 42,699,571,200 Effective gasoline-equivalent savings (liters) y 3.9 Amount of global crude oil extraction, billions of tonnes (2010) 521,845,394,389 Liters of total US gasoline consumption in 2010 0.85 Density of crude oil, tonnes per cubic meter 8% Reduction in gasoline needs by repurposing entire corn harvest 4.6 Volume of global crude oil extracted, bn cubic meters (2010) . , ; ; Implication: Benefits of corn ethanol appear to be close to their maximum Implication: Capturing a small portion of CO. emissions requires a production level. There is of course the issue of ethanol's "energy return on compression/transportation/storage industry whose throughput is greater investment” (EROI), for which estimates range from 0.8:1 to 1.6:1. Charles Hall than the one used for oil extraction; and without the benefit that oil provides at SUNY ESF (originator of the EROI concept in the 1970's) published recent as an energy input. Coal-fired plant capital costs could rise 40%-75% (as EROls for o