HOUSE OVERSIGHT 029555 Leaning across the table he says to me that briefing notes and economic texts aren't enough: the leader must locate his own source of higher command and inner belief. He laments the efforts of US President Barak Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the teeth of contemporary challenges. "There is nothing preordained about American decline any more than the European project is destined to fail," he writes. "But the portents are not good. Despite the rhetoric, President Obama conducts himself as an arbitrator or mediator between the competing strands of American economic and political ideology. He repeatedly eschews striking out, snatching the naked flame and hanging on. But the cost of this strategy is not simply a cost to him; it is a cost to the whole world. "On the other hand, Chancellor Merkel is the archetypal worry-wart. She does not lead; she assesses. "You really wonder why leaders want these jobs when they really do not want to lead. And what is their risk? That Barack Obama will not get a second term? Or that Angela Merkel's coalition might finally end up on the rocks? If they actually made the leap they might astound themselves. Because, in the end, everyone in political life gets carried out - the only relevant question is whether the pallbearers will be crying." For Keating, the 20th-century leader exerting most influence on the coming century is China's Deng Xiaoping. "If you look at the other figures of the century, Roosevelt, Churchill, Stalin and Mao, none will leave the legacy in terms of the 21st century that Deng leaves," he says. "He walked away from the ideology of the Communist Party just as effectively as Mikhail Gorbachev walked away from the essence of the Soviet Union." By 2050 Keating sees a world order with nations in terms of gross domestic product in this hierarchy: (1) China, (2) US, (3) India, (4) Japan, (5) Brazil, (6) Russia, (7) Britain, (8) Germany, (9) France and (10) Italy. The