HOUSE OVERSIGHT 029345 $20 18 16 14 12 10 6 4 2 1_ Dec 27. '13 1. Valhi Inc Feb 12, '14 Mar 28, '14 May13. '14 Jun 26, '1 Source: Bloomberg Oh.6 The stock closed yesterday at $6.01, reducing the value of the estate's holdings by $2.8 billion -- and its estate-tax liability by $1.1 billion -- since Simmons's death. Is that good news or bad news for the estate? Well, the first law of tax is that it is always better to have more money than less money.' It's not actually a good idea to lose $2.8 billion of money to save $1.1 billion in taxes. Though the estate didn't exactly lose $2.8 billion of money. That tax liability is a cash expense: You've actually got to write a check to the IRS for $1.9 billion (using the December valuation) or $765 million (using yesterday's valuation), so the $1.1 billion you save is an actual cash savings. The $2.8 billion loss, on the other hand, is a paper loss. Perhaps it's just temporary. If there were some reason to think that it didn't reflect only a decline in the fundamental value of Valhi, you might not worry as much about that paper loss as you would about the cash taxes. So what's happened to Valhi? Well, it's not having a great year, with zero-ish net income last quarter. The board reduced the dividend by 60 percent, to its lowest level since 2005. And the few people who follow the stock are unimpressed. Bloomberg shows two analysts following Valhi, Barclays and EVA Dimensions. They both have sell ratings, and Barclays has a price target of $5.00, saying in May that "from a SOTP analysis, we continue to view VHI as trading above its intrinsic value." A Seeking Alpha piece from a few weeks ago is similarly gloomy, with a $6 per share fair value. All of this suggests that Simmons's estate owes less tax because it's really worth less than it was six months ago. In fact, if you taxed Simmons's heirs now based on the value of Valhi six months ago, they'd have almost nothing left of their stock. But t