HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026899

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HOUSE OVERSIGHT 026899 Recent steepening of the yield curve. We have highlighted two measures of the yield curve as sign- posts we watch as an early harbinger of a recession. Both have steepened since their lows, as shown in Exhibits 5 and 6. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg. *"Near-Term Forward Spread" is the implied 3-month forward yield 18-months from now. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg.

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