lran: US Congress will not stop nuclear deal; EU already moving forward — fast. What's next? ; Real GDP Growth IE Forecast - P5+1 and Iran reached a deal. Big peo Risen obstacle has been overcome: Enough US 6 | P2 } 5 fa Senators support to ensure it can move 4 Ji 3 y es forward. 2 oH) g - Saudi Arabia “supports” the deal. The 0 WG a 7, Saudi king was in DC last month. US has 3 ak quietly promised nuclear protection and - | Negcesneat massive weapons sales. ° | ~ Market implications of a deal are 7 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 significant, especially for European __ corporates eager to get back into Iran aes = MENA marketplace (i.e. Italian PM Renzi already oo mTurkey = visited Tehran as has German FM). WD sctine & india - Iran wants to build 400 four & five star a in| hotels in next five to ten years. - - a - But do not expect any significant oil 60 export increase and/or sales into Iran for at 40 least 8— 10 months. Iran must first comply 50 and set up systems for inspections. ° 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: IIF; IMF Deutsche Bank Francis J. Kelly Global Public Affairs [email protected] 16 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026810