HOUSE OVERSIGHT 026638 on trade, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending. (1) The doves at the Fed have been silenced as, under President Trump, the US policy mix will likely be less lop-sided and the emphasis will be on Arrow 3, with Arrow 1 being downgraded. I think the effective demotion of the Fed has just begun. Its independence will likely be challenged, as it should be, in my personal view. November 8 marked the beginning of the end of the financial repression in the US. (2) Generating outsized economic growth will be key to settling several important inconsistencies in macro. I will elaborate on this point below. But the market trends witnessed since November 8 will not be sustained unless Mr Trump's policies indeed lead to significantly higher nominal GDP growth. (3) The mainstream media remain negative on Mr Trump, but this will keep the hurdle low, and in turn pressure President Trump to deliver early in 2017 and thus for him to impress favourably. A shift away from identity politics, in my view, based on my personal experience from Taiwan, should lead to positive economic progress. Investors won't need to wait long for there to be more concrete announcements on the various parts of Arrow 3, including both the content of the policies as well as their sequencing. (4) FWIW, my two policy recommendations to the reformers are (i) design an effective global taxation scheme to properly tax multi-national corporations and (ii) adopt industrial policies to help countries focus on their comparative advantages. The US, UK, Japan, and Italy are all prime candidates to do (ii). (5) The dollar is already moderately over-valued, but this will not prevent it from strengthening further, especially against the EM currencies. Think in terms of 'growth alpha' and 'growth beta.' Much of EM, including China since February of this year, have not possessed 'growth alpha' and have continued to rely on 'growth beta' vis-à-vis the rest of the world. I stru