Jan Loeys Global Asset Allocation (1-212) 834-5874 The J.P. Morgan View J.P. Morgan [email protected] 09 November 2012 Global Economic Outlook Summary Real GDP Real GDP Consumer prices % over a year ago % over previous period, saar % over a year ago 2011 2012 2013 1012 2012 3Q12 4Q12 1013 2013 3013 4Q11 2012 4Q12 2013 The Americas United States 18 2.2 17 2.0 13 2.0 20 1.0 15 2.5 3.3 1.9) 1.9 17 Canada 2.6 2.2 2.1 18 1.9 19 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 27 16 24 2.0 Latin America 42 2.9 3.9 28 24 3.91 45 3.4 3.7 40 12 6.0 6.0 68 Argentina 8.9 27 3.6 24 3.2 5.0 10.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 96 9.9 10.0 11.0 Brazil 21 14 41 0.5 16 48 46 3.8 40 43 6.7 5.0 55 56 Chile 6.0 54 45 5.1 7.1 3.0 40 40 5.0 5.0 40 3.1 2.5 3.1 Colombia oo 43 45 0.9 6.7 28 3.8 42 55 55 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.2 Ecuador 8.0 5.0 40 42 48 3.0 55 5.0 3.0 3.0 5.5 5.1 5.1 54 Mexico 39 3.9 3.6 49 20 21+ 3.5 40 3.2 3.3 a5) 39 44 41 Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 8.3 6.0 55 6.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 45 41 3.0 2.8 Uruguay 57 3.5 40 11.8 2.1 90 -9.0 12.0 7.0 9.0 8.3 8.0 16 1.2 Venezuela 42 5.0 0.0 10.1 0.6 3.5 0.0 40 0.0 3.0 28.5 22.3 18.5 30.2 Asia/Pacific Japan -0.7 17 0.1 53 0.7 3.5 -2.0 1.0 16 13 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Australia 2.1 3.5 25 5.6 2.6 15 18 3.8 2.5 18 3.1 1.2 17 27 New Zealand 13 2.6 2.9 41 2.3 LS) 3.5 3.7 3.3 2.0 18 1.0 14 1.8 Asia ex Japan 74 6.1 6.4 7.2 58 57 6.2. 6.3 6.5 6.8 49 3.9 3.4 3.9 T China 93 16 8.0 6.6 71 Td 82 8.0 8.2 8.2 46 2.9 2.2 3.3 Hong Kong 5.0 1.2 3.2 24 -0.4 20 25 3.5 3.5 5.0 57 42 3.4 3.4 India 6.5 56 6.0 6.1 Bs) 52 5.0 58 6.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 98 9.0 Indonesia 6.5 57 3.5 477 6.0. 4.9 T 30 3.0 40 40 41 45 3.9 2.2 Korea 3.6 2.3 3.2 3.5 11 0.6 35 3.0 40 45 40 24 1.9 3.0 Malaysia 51 5.0 tT 3.7 T 58 5.9 25 3.5 T 3.5 T 3.0 3.5 3.2 17 1.1 1.2 Philippines 3.8 53 3.5 126 0.9 12 1.2 45 45 45 47 29 2.3 2.3 Singapore 49 154 2.5 + 95+ 07 3.97 3.2 49. 1.6 T 41 5.5 53 4.5 T 4.0 T Taiwan 40 1.2 3.4 16 2.2 30 38 a5) 3.5 3.8 14 17 2.1 18 Thailand 0.1 58 27 50.8 13.9 2.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 40 2.5 3.3 3.0 Africa/Middle East Israel 46 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 2.0 2