Volatility in the US Quantifying the (bond-equity correl) risks to risk parity Last week’s sharp sell-off in JGBs (Chart 7) following the Bo)’s decision not to cut rates renewed investor fears of forced selling by risk parity funds. However, the spill-over into US Treasuries was relatively muted (Chart 7), and coupled with a small and fleeting drawdown in US equities, risk parity portfolio volatility failed to rise materially (Chart 8). Consequently, risk parity funds were likely forced to unwind little to none of their leverage last week and remain near max leverage levels (Chart 9). For this very reason, the latent risk in this corner of the quant fund space remains worth monitoring. Furthermore, as we noted post-Brexit, fixed income allocations within risk parity funds are historically elevated today. And with federal-funds futures markets implying a ~25% chance of a Sep rate hike and less than a 50% probability of a Dec hike, bond markets may be surprised by a 2016 Fed hike. Chart 7: Last week’s sharp sell-off in JGBs did Chart 8: Consequently, risk parity portfolio Chart 9: Hence risk parity funds did not de- 104 108 10% 3 0, 103 106 oy 25 /) rh 102 104 Ta ; “A ; W Ly 6% 15 a) el IL 101 102 5% 1. Me val ON 4% y -_ 100 100 3% 05 2% Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Me ve Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Aug- Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 49 43 44 45 16 ———LOW Vol Target (6%) & Lvg (1.5x) — inl OTIS Ketel reas ——=Historical volatility of unlevered risk ~~ MEDIUM Vol Target (8%) & Lvg (2x) ——=10y UST futures total return (right) parity portfolio HIGH Vol Target (10%) & Lvg (3x) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Daily data from 4- Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Equity, fixed income, Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Daily data from 31- Jan-16 through 5-Aug-16. and commodity components within the hypothetical risk parity Dec-12 through 27-Jun-16. Equity, fixed income, and commodity investment are represented by the S&P500, 10-Year US Treasury components with