leave the union. The US should help Turkey and Baghdad resovlve their issues. Portraying Turkey as a model and Iraq as a bad guy is counter productive. Turkey is trying to undermine Shia role in Iraq. JS: External forces will affect Iraq. We need to keep incentives for all parties to keep country together. MO: Iraq is most vulnerable to Iran when it is weak and divided and we haven’t done enough to help Iraq. Iraqi’s are worried that an Assad exit will push Iran to double down on Iraq. JS: limit Iran’s influence on Iraq by isolating Iran in region. Reducing Iran’s incluence in region is key. But Iraq also has to get its act together and be more cohesive. President has made a big bet on Erdogan and Turkey. Scowcroft: What are Turkey’s objectives in Iraq? Steinberg: Kurd separation is their focus. Building a relationship with Iraqi Kurds is aroute for Turkey. They don’t like NAM and Shia — sunni split plays a role in Turkey’s attitude towards Iraq. MO: Turkey sees Iraq and Iraqi Kurds as a source of energy. Turkey doesn’t necessarily like the idea of an indep. Kurdish state. Also comments that there are limits to Iran’s influence in Iraq. Sadr is becoming an Iraqi nationalist. He wants to get rid of NAM. Fluid political dynamics in Iraq. Iran cannot determine outcomes in Iraq. 3 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025799