Laffer Associates Game On [Updated 7/6/2016] To put substance into the predictive power of state and local election results for presidential elections, | have graphically aligned state house results for all states with state senate results for all states and gubernatorial results for all states by year. Figure 7 State House, Senate, and Governorships (1976-1998: biannual, 2000-2016: annual) 3800 Z a = 5 5 = o Oo 5 3800 B |@ |S [5 |5 |@ |& |§ |§ o » A SB |S | S$ jf |? |= |3 43 3500 5 2 @ 5 =] - = 3 a 3500 = a = _ = @ 3200 3200 122) 2900 -, / 2900 2 Ma J 7 ra 2600 prgoerr A h 2600 z \ q 2300 in ’ a 2300 o o| Sawer ™ a\x/ ———== Democrat 2000 4 ¢ e 2000 a @ @ @e Republican 1700 1700 1400 1400 1300 1300 1200 1200 g & 1100 wf 1100 (a) U ies) Ct Toad 2 1000 U 1000 a o eS 77) ot °o 900 / Sno 900 U 800 a 800 4 Pe ian ool == Democrat ~ 700 Ps = @ = « Republican 700 ? 600 600 50 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 7) rr - 6 30 7s Lar 30 $ ‘oHms er 3 25 wl 25 oO ie us ay 20 oe) a) Nae 20 o| A t vd 164 f| Sen 15 10 = = = « Republican 10 5 ———= Democrat 5 0 0 oO lop) N Ww wo _ v N Oo oO © Dn N w y Ny ioe) ioe) ioe) fe?) le?) le?) Qo Qo Qo i=) = x lop) for) Oo Oo Oo Qo Qo Qo oO Oo oO Oo Oo oO - Tr TF TH Te TFT THT TH NN NN ON ON Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NCSL While by no means perfect, there is clearly a close correlation between a party’s success in state and local elections, and that party’s success in the upcoming presidential election. If that close correlation holds in November of 2016, there will be a Republican landslide. 13 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025308