Laffer Associates Game On [Updated 7/6/2016] Table 4 Caucuses Following May 34 | Republican Caucus Turn Out Democrat Caucus Turn Out | 2008 =| 2012 2016 2008 2016 V. Politics Bubbles Up from the Bottom and Presidential Selection is the Final Coup de Grace of a Political Revolution The proposition of this section of this paper is that elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, state houses, state senates and governorships are accurate indicators of Presidential races. If these federal and state elections are accurate forecasters in 2016, Hillary Clinton is toast. a.) Politics in the U.S. Congress In January 2009, there were 57 Democrats in the U.S. Senate, 2 Independents (Sanders VT and King ME) who always voted with and caucused with the Democrats, and 41 Republicans. Today, there are 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats plus the same 2 Independents who are effectively Democrats (see Table 5 below). Likewise, in January 2009, there were 257 Democrats in the U.S. House and 178 Republicans. Today, the tables have turned and the Republicans have their largest majority in the House since 1928, 247, and the Democrats have 188 House members. Not only have the numbers changed dramatically, but the ideologies have also become more concentrated. The changes in the U.S. Congress over the past eight years are huge and reflect an enormous swing in U.S. political sentiments. But the groundswell doesn’t stop there. Table 5 U.S. Senate Count U.S. House Count Democrat | Republican | Other Democrat Republican Other Source: 2009-2016 NCSL *numbers for State data are of January for each year Source: Data prior to 2009 census.gov *numbers for state data are of March of each year Figure 5 Figure 6 U.S. Senate Count U.S. House Count (two-year cycles, 1999-2017) (two-year cycles, 1999-2017) 60 60 260 260 == =— Republi =_ = i 58 ee = 58 950 Republican 250 eee Jemocra ex=== Democrat 56 °6 240 ® 7 240 5A a 54 ! \¢ \ t 230 Pm \ 230 52 4 \ 52 o ! —— \ / 220 = 220 50 50 % 210 210