Laffer Associates Game On [Updated 7/6/2016] electorate’s response to this question reflects a consistent indicator over a long period of time: in fact, long enough for us to get a sense of whether this measure is a reliable guide to help forecast election results (see Figure 4). It is: In my paper “Senate Outlook” of October 2, 2014, | relied heavily on this Gallup question to arrive at my outlandish forecast of a seven seat gain for the Republicans in that years Senate races. My forecast of a seven seat pickup was probably the most optimistic forecast at the time for the Republicans. But, as it turned out, | was off by two! The Republicans actually picked up nine seats—West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, lowa, North Carolina and Colorado—and lost none. Figure 4 The Gallup “Are You Satisfied?” Survey (Feb 2-5, 1979 through Feb 3-7, 2016) 100% 100% In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? NOTE: This chart shows "satisfied" 90% x x - 6 90% ¢ |f j|j- |f ¢ | =F fF § a S [ss] ist) o 80% 1 ry S) o & 3 3 80% 5 5 iss] s 5 7) “a 7) rt) —_ — a _ = = = —_— = > — — 10% 10% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% DOT-~ NOMTWOOMDDOTH AMTWMOONMDADOT AOMTWMO OR DDOA- AVY TWO ~ WODDDADAADDAADMDAMNMOMNOOAOOANOAOOODODOODVMVOAOMAOAOAOAOADTYTTTTTST DODOODAAAAIAI9AAIDAIAAIANAAAAAADIOIOVDIOO900 000 020 000° 0 eee re PSP SPP SP TSP SPST TPT HTH TH TH NANNNNANNANNANNNAN NS Source: Gallup The predictive power of this Gallup poll’s “are you better off?” question since the election of 1980 is pretty impressive. Both of Reagan elections were right in sync with Gallup’s poll survey at November of 1980 and November of 1984. Likewise, Bush Senior's election in November of 1988 was seen as Reagan’s third term and was foreseen by the Gallup poll question. And then both Clinton elections were right in line with the survey results from the Gallup poll questions in November of 1992 and No