Key financial market driver 3 - China growth outlook Key questions First interest rate cut since 2008 e When will the economy bottom out? : e What economic policy responses can we expect to support the economy ahead? e How significant is the contagion risk from a possible downturn in the Eurozone? CIO View (Probability: 70%*) Modest policy easing to support growth in 2H12 é ¢ The latest economic data suggest that economic activity is showing signs of stabilization, albeit at a - comparatively low level. However, we have yet to see meaningful pick-up in activity. We think that policy 2 4 measures to support the economy should have more visible effect on activity in the second half of the 5 PO LL year. ¢ To this effect, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has recently cut interest rates by 25bps — the first such F move since late 2008. With investment demand still sluggish, we don't expect the measure to have a significant near-term effect on growth. Still, the cut confirms the leadership's commitment to support the 0 economy. Importantly, with the rate cut, measures were announced to increase the banks’ ability to set a a a a a oe ae interest rates, which should bolster private household spending power in the future. es = #£ #£ 8 S AS GG ¢ The rate reduction took place against a backdrop of falling price inflation. Thus, inflation is no obstacle —— hitcar ennai — tear ener for further measures to ease monetary policy. However, at this point we don't expect further rate cuts this source: Bloomberg, UBS CIO, as of 18 Jun 2012 year; especially since increased interest rate flexibility should contribute to an easing of monetary conditions ahead. If anything, we think the PBoC may implement more reductions in banks' reserve . i. . requirement rates to ensure sufficient liquidity provisions. Thus, we think the real focus has to be on the Pick-up in infrastructure investment fiscal policy measures now, including possibly an acceleration of infrastructure i