Key fi lal ket driver 1 -£ SL Key questions Bottoming in Eurozone leading ¢ What is the way forward for Eurozone banks? indicators (PMI) in June? e What is the most likely course of events in Spain, Italy and Portugal? 65 e In what direction will the economy and the ECB go? ae CIO View (Probability: 65%*) Austerity and weak growth sg |e = a 5 ten ¢ Support for the banking sector is a major political agenda item, and the request for external support for 50 —\- \Z Spanish banks can be seen as the starting point for greater European support and oversight for banks, to 45 ' be discussed at the upcoming European Council. 40 \ ¢ Greece's debt remains unsustainable, but the risk of a euro exit over the next six months has diminished 35 after the 17 June elections, which have produced a viable government coalition. The Troika may only accept moderate adjustments to the second Greek package. Portugal is likely to receive an increased ao 06 0 08 08 10 4 2 bailout package and is unlikely to default in 2012. Progress on reforms and consolidation in Spain and Italy —Manutacturing —senices —Camposite is most crucial for the near-term development of the crisis. Risk premiums would rise strongly on any failure to meet deficit targets; we expect bond risk premiums to remain elevated for Spain and Italy over Source: Bloomberg, UBS CIO, as of 21 June 2012 (estimates) the next six months. ¢ Following stagnation in 1Q 2012, economic surveys are commensurate with a quarterly GDP contraction of around 0.3% at present. Business survey evidence points to a general wait and see mode. The risk to the outlook for a stabilization of economic growth in the second half of 2012 is skewed to the downside. The ECB remains on hold, but the bar to support the economy and markets has been lowered substantially. We Yield of Spanish and Italian 10-year see a significant probability of policy action in early July, including the possibility of a rate reduction. bonds over German Bunds (in bps) Despite all