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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023581

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For those who wish to remain fully invested and/or seek broader index-level hedges for Tech positions, we suggest 3M put spreads on NDX for two reasons: (i) our cross-asset hedging analysis (Chart 15) shows little value in proxy hedging Nasdaq 100 exposure, even with relatively lower vol S&P options, as the basis risk has tended to be too high historically for proxy hedging to be reliably beneficial; and (ii) compared to outright puts, put spreads help limit long exposure to short-dated NDX implied volatility that is low but not cheap (Chart 14). Hedge inflation & deflation of a Tech Bubble via SPX 12M Top50 dispersion Dispersion strategies can be particularly attractive hedges for asset bubbles as idiosyncratic market moves generate high volatility (to which dispersion is positively correlated) with a limited rise in correlation (to which dispersion is negatively correlated). Importantly, as seen from Chart 11, this can occur both during the run-up to the market peak as well as after the bubble pops. In other words, long vol dispersion strategies can profit from Both the inflation and deflation of an asset bubble, without requiring an investor to time the top. With the SPX Top50 largely dominated by Tech stocks (34% of total market cap) and with average longer-dated single stock vol in the basket trading close to 3yr lows (12M SPX Top50 ATMf implied vol is in its 2"¢ %-ile since Jun-14, Chart 16), we recommend investors go long 12M SPX Top50 dispersion. Chart 18 shows that such a strategy would have recorded its best performance during the formation and subsequent bursting of the dotcom bubble as volatility increased in tandem with falling correlation (see Chart 11). Importantly, while implied correlation continues trading in a new, lower range since the US election, the spread to realized correlation has remained healthy with the SPX Top50 12M implied vs. 6M realized correlation spread in its 81* %-ile over the past 3 years (Chart 17}. This makes selling the corre

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