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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023092

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Methodology Repatriation impact We estimated cumulative overseas profits for the S&P 500 excluding Financials and Real Estate via three sources: 1) Bloomberg data on cash held overseas (if disclosed/available}, 2) BofAML analyst estimates on cumulative overseas profits or cash, and 3) our own estimate if neither (1) or (2) are available, based on (Total cash x [% of foreign sales +10%J]) for companies with at least 5% foreign sales. We apply the effective tax rates proposed by Trump (10%) and the Blueprint (8.75%) to our estimated $1.2tn in overseas cash to determine taxes due for the S&P 500 ex. Financials & Real Estate. We estimate that 100% is brought back given that the tax is mandatory. To compute the one-time tax impact to GAAP EPS, we divide the cumulative tax impact by the S&P 500 divisor, after first excluding the impact from several large multinationals (e.g. AAPL) which already provision a portion of their overseas profits for US taxes and have effective US tax rates well above 35%. Note that for companies for which our analysts provided estimates, we asked them to provide cumulative overseas profits if possible, but in most cases this number reflects overseas cash. Thus, taxes paid could be slightly higher than we estimate given that both the Blueprint and Trump’s plans suggest a mandatory tax on all accumulated overseas profits, some of which may be permanently reinvested; here, the Blueprint suggests a lower 3.5% tax for retained earnings not held in cash/equivalents, suggesting that any additional taxes payable that we are not capturing are likely to be small. To calculate the % EPS impact from buybacks, we subtract the amount of taxes payable from total cash brought back for the S&P 500 ex. Financials & Real Estate (and for each sector) and divide this by the market cap for the S&P 500 (and for each sector.) We multiply this % impact for the overall index by our 2018E EPS of $137 to determine the potential EPS impact, applying various buyback scenari

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Independent research project. Not affiliated with the U.S. Department of Justice, FBI, any government agency, or Anthropic. All analytical text on this site is AI-generated (Claude, Anthropic) and iteratively fact-checked against source documents, but may contain errors. Verify all claims against linked EFTA sources before citing.
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