USA Consumers = Biggest Demand Driver For GDP Growth, Until 2007 Personal Consumption’s Contribution to Real GDP Growth, 1950 - 2009 Se Gg ee — aM es ee 2 an se se men — 8 ms ts — set Ss — a i a Sn = Se — xe BG woe ed goss = ms 2 giles =o = i ss = mes lps ca py = a sue = = mes = = £ co) > 2% --£--- oom = = ss > a Qa © rt 0% wo a ay, i @ Real GDP Y/Y Growth _| © Personal Consumption Expenditure’'s Contribution to Real GDP Growth 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: BEA. (@)) www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 361 Beginning in 2007, Wealth Destruction + High Unemployment Forced Consumers to Save Again, Potentially Reducing Short-Term Demand for Goods & Services 3% average annual GDP growth (1981 - 2007) was helped as the average USA consumer: 1) Increased personal consumption as percent of GDP to 71% from 62%; 2) Decreased personal savings rate to 2% of disposable income from 11%; Beginning in 2007, things changed as: 1) The average US consumer experienced a material decline in the value of his / her largest investment assets (real estate and equities) from 2007 to 2009 when peak-to-trough valuations for USA residential real estate declined 30% and the S&P 500 declined 56%; 2) Unemployment rose to 10% in 2009 / 2010 from 30-year trough of 4% in 1999, creating uncertainty regarding future personal income levels; 3) Personal savings rate increased to 6% in 2009 / 2010 of disposable income from 2% in 2007, as uncertainty grows and appetite for consumption ebbs; All in, the key driver of US GDP growth -— the US consumer’s ability to spend — is severely constrained in the short term as he / she aims to rebuild savings and contain spending. This raises the question — ‘How fast can US GDP grow annually over the next ten years?’ Determining ways to drive GDP (and related job growth) is crucial... Source: Residential real estate decline based on CQ1:07 to CQ1:09 changes in S&P Case-Shiller