How Much Would Real GDP Need to Grow to Drive USA Inc. to Break-Even Without Policy Changes? 6-7% in F2012E-F2014E & 4-5% in F2015- F2020E...Well Above 40-Year Average of 3% CBO’s Baseline Real GDP Growth vs. Required Real GDP Growth for a Balanced Budget Between F2011E and F2020E Ss 2 ° — —= — — ee eee — eee 0) > o ra) Oo g 0% ac 200 2011E 2013E 2015E 2017E 2019E —— Real GDP Annual Growth (CBO Baseline Forecast) ——— Real GDP Annual Growth Needed to Eliminate Fiscal Deficit == = 1970-2009 Average Real GDP Growth K P Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10. i USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 359 It’s Highly Unlikely That Annual Real GDP Can Grow Faster Than 6%... It Happened Only 8 Times in Past 60 Years and Was Always Linked to a Cyclical Bounce Back CBO’s Baseline Real Annual GDP Growth vs. Required Real Annual GDP Growth for a Balanced Budget Between F2011E and F2020E in Historical Context (1950-2020E) _ a“ ont ; IN\*— Ss I > ao 2% ----| 7 b 7 - 7 ~-gNe--- °F a rt Ss LY) 4 0% u v \ 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010E 2020E =——— Real GDP Annual Growth (Historical) ———— Real GDP Annual Growth (CBO's Baseline Forecast) = =Real GDP Annual Growth Needed to Eliminate Fiscal Deficit K P Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10. Ce USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 360 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_021021