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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016829

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cannot serve as the basis for Strong Al—that is, artificial intelligence that emulates human-level reasoning and competence. To achieve human-level intelligence, learning machines need the guidance of a blueprint of reality, a model—similar to a road map that guides us in driving through an unfamiliar city. To be more specific, current learning machines improve their performance by optimizing parameters for a stream of sensory inputs received from the environment. It is a slow process, analogous to the natural-selection process that drives Darwinian evolution. It explains how species like eagles and snakes have developed superb vision systems over millions of years. It cannot explain, however, the super-evolutionary process that enabled humans to build eyeglasses and telescopes over barely a thousand years. What humans had that other species lacked was a mental representation of their environment—representations that they could manipulate at will to imagine alternative hypothetical environments for planning and learning. Historians of Homo sapiens such as Yuval Noah Harari and Steven Mithen are in general agreement that the decisive ingredient that gave our ancestors the ability to achieve global dominion about forty thousand years ago was their ability to create and store a mental representation of their environment, interrogate that representation, distort it by mental acts of imagination, and finally answer the “What if?” kind of questions. Examples are interventional questions (“What if I do such-and-such?”) and retrospective or counterfactual questions (“What if I had acted differently?”). No learning machine in operation today can answer such questions. Moreover, most learning machines do not possess a representation from which the answers to such questions can be derived. With regard to causal reasoning, we find that you can do very little with any form of model-blind curve fitting, or any statistical inference, no matter how sophisticated the fitting proc

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