We estimate that a 20% decline in electronic sales would result in a 5% direct decline in gross profit. However, this ignores the other negative effects of other product categories due to a weaker footfall trend. More entertainment in KSA, less attraction for Jarir’s stores In line with the guidance of the NTP, we expect Saudi Arabia to develop the entertainment sector (theme parks, cinemas). This signals the emergence of new aspirations and social changes for Saudis. While these developments will support implementation of Saudi Vision 2030, they will pose threats to the existing business models of Saudi retailers such as Jarir and Extra that are currently substituting for the lack of entertainment opportunities in the country. OS Merrill Lynch GEMs Paper #26 | 30 June 2016 63 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_016173