Health: Not Tremendously Prescriptive Vision 2030 a start but Needs Transparent Proposals The Saudi government’s Vision 2030 document calls for an improvement in healthcare in Saudi Arabia. The private healthcare sector has some role to play; the National Transformation Plan (NTP) targets the private sector to be responsible for funding 35% of healthcare spend in 2020, up from 25% today. How it intends to do this is uncertain. We believe the incumbent private hospital operators, including listed companies (Al Hammadi, Care, Dallah, MEAHCO and Mouwasat) should be beneficiaries of increased private sector funding, although increased investment would be needed to meet growth in demand longer-term. Improve public facilities, work towards privatisation The government wants to step back from financing and providing healthcare and adopt an oversight and regulatory role. Firstly the government wants to improve the quality of care offered in the public sector, with the eventual aim of working towards privatisation of public assets and healthcare provision. This implies no privatisations short-term. Near-term: Management contracts for public hospitals In the near-term the government could seek to improve healthcare provision in the public system by using private sector expertise, through, e.g. contracting management of public facilities to the private sector. Individual such contracts are unlikely to transform company earnings, and the small size of existing Saudi hospital groups limits the depth of management available to capture large contracts, in our view. Long-term: insurance coverage up to 31m from 10.5m In the long-term a widespread adoption of private health insurance is likely to raise volumes, spurring an increase in private healthcare capacity, either from organic investment or participation in privatisations. In Saudi currently, 10.5m/31m people have insurance. We assume a more universal scheme would offer lower pricing than that today, and listed incumbents would