next five years, namely Iran and the UAE. As for Libya, the current turmoil needs to come to an end, while the scale of any Iraqi long-term output increase remains the biggest uncertainty. Chart 38: We estimated that demand will grow by 5.9mn bpd in 2015- Chart 39: Other than Saudi Arabia, some OPEC countries will also expand 20 their capacity in the next five years, namely Iran the UAE 105 Global oil consumption BofAML OPEC capacjty growth, 2015-2020F mn bpd feast Kuwait 100 , Algeria 95 Qatar 90 Venezuela Angol 85 _ Ecuador 80 Nigeria 75 UAE 70 Libya 65 Iran ' Saudi Arabia mn bid 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 O07 09 11 13 15 17 19 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 Source: IEA, BofA Merrill Lynch Commodities Research Source: IEA, BofA Merrill Lynch Commodities Research Saudi plans to keep capacity flat add to medium term tightness Saudi Arabia has 12.5mn bpd of crude production capacity, according to the government, and the country suggested within the NTP that it plans to maintain capacity at the current level to 2020. Saudi Arabia is the only material holder of spare crude oil production capacity around the world. Spare capacity currently sits at c2mn bpd, which is one of the lowest levels ever. Even if Saudi Arabia did start investing today, it would take a number of years to be completed and would unlikely be ready before 2020 in any case. Hence, as Saudi ramps up production over the medium-term by digging into its spare capacity, the risk premium in the oil market will rise as the market becomes increasingly less able to handle future supply disruptions. Chart 40: The supply side in oil faces a lot of disruptions linked to Chart 41: Saudi Arabia has 12.5mn bpd of crude production capacity, eopolitics and broad economic mismanagement and currently is c2.0 of spare capacity over current production Major oil supply disruptions 45 Saudi Arabia spare crude oil production capacity 6 > an bid (excluding disruptions due to OPEC policy changes) mn bid 5 post Arab spring mo Kuwait,