Table 12: Selected drivers of Saudi consumer Direction Comment Oil prices Volatile Indirect impact through economic activity and confidence Population growth Decreasing Direct impact through lower number of expatriates and national birth rate Public sector wage growth Flat to contracting Freeze in government wage bill Private sector wage growth Flat to minor increase Some sectors to contract (construction), others resilient (retail, staples) Saudi private sector male employment Mixed Saudization helps, but economic slowdown and supply-side factors impact negatively Saudi private sector female employment Increasing NTP aims to increase it through several measures Consumer leverage Decreasing Banking sector liquidity and lending standards are tightening Real estate finance Increasing NTP measures are supportive in this area Specialized Credit Institutions (SCls) Flat SCls can continue to support the economy Saudization Increasing Negative impact short-term, positive impact medium-term Subsidies Decreasing Timing and breadth unclear as of yet Other fiscal consolidation measures (VAT, etc) Likely forthcoming Direct and indirect negative impact on consumer Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Chart 25: Private sector average monthly wages are increasing Chart 26: Wedge between Saudi and non-Saudi private sector salaries SARImonth 2004 2005 m2006 m 2007 m 2008 m2009 SAR/month -_ 2010 2011 m 2012 m2013 m2014 = 2015 7,000 m2014 2015 , 6,000 3,000 5,000 2,500 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,000 1,000 1,000 500 0 0 Male Female Male Female Male Female Total Saudis Non-Saudis Source: SAMA, BofA ML Global Research. SAMA wage data coverage appears incomplete. Source: General Organization for Social Insurance (GOSI), BofA ML Global Research. Banks and contractors will require supportive policies to realize NTP benefits The banking sector is targeted to benefit from the NTP initiatives through greater disintermediation (SMEs, real estate financing, non-oil export financing) and gre