Focus on increasing non-hydrocarbon fiscal revenue could fall short of target The breakdown of measures to raise non-oil revenues is not given. However, the tally is close to the USS100bn targeted in the Vision 2030 and is thus likely to include measures discussed then: hikes to administered energy prices, review of current levels of fees and fines, introduction of new fees, land tax (we estimate annual revenues of 1.5-2% of GDP in its first phase when fully implemented). In this regard, the NTP suggests forthcoming privatizations, imposition of taxes on harmful products (likely tobacco and soft drinks), introduction of a Value-Added Tax (VAT) for which we estimate annual revenues of up to 2% of GDP, implementation of a unified income tax and of an income tax on residents (although official comments later clarified there were no plans to tax nationals but stayed equivocal regarding expatriates). Although there is no direct budgetary impact, water and electricity subsidies are targeted to decrease by SAR200bn. Non-oil subsidies are targeted to decrease by 20% by 2020. The latter, we believe, consists largely of subsidies for social and sports clubs, private education, private hospitals, and other agricultural subsidies. They were budgeted at SAR3.9bn (US$1.0bn; 0.2% of GDP) in 2016, down from SAR15.0bn (USS$4.0bn; 0.6% of GDP) in 2015. A 20% cut to these on-budget non-oil subsidies would thus generate minimal savings of US$O.2-USS$0.8bn (0.1-0.5% of GDP) depending if the reference base year was 2015 or 2016. According to the Deputy Crown Prince pronouncements early in the year, medium-term plans are also likely to target the introduction of US$400bn of unutilized state assets (land, etc) to state-owned funds, with the latter in turn in charge of developing them into projects and companies than can be IPOed to the public. In our view, this may be linked to the Ministry of Finance assigned KPI of increasing total recorded non-oil assets (real estate, etc) from SAR3trn