Chart 12: Breakdown of expenditure on inbound tourist trips Chart 13: Inbound tourist trips to Saudi Arabia by country of origin SARbn mm Other 80 mums Religious 80 mums Business Yo == Family visits mame Holidays 7%°" 60 religious tourism (%,of t s) ~ 70 25% | 45% 40 - 60 17% 20 - 50 0 40 mGCC sMiddle East mAsia mEurope mAfrica © America 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SAMA, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Source: SAMA, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data as of 2015. Mixed prospects for fiscal consolidation The apparent redistribution of part of the proceeds of the flagship fiscal measures towards funding the NTP initiatives suggests that the fiscal consolidation efforts could fall short of the necessary requirement to narrow imbalances materially in the absence of a sustained oil price recovery. We calculate that the NTP targets a total net cumulative fiscal consolidation effort of SAR648bn (US$172.8bn) or c1% of GDP annually, assuming progressive and full implementation of the non-oil revenue targets. Energy policy needs to support economic transformation Energy policy is likely to be less aggressive going forward, particularly as the NTP suggests a constant oil production capacity as well as an increase in gas production domestically which could free up domestic crude for exports. To remain consistent with the targeted government debt accumulation path, we estimate that oil prices have to average at least US$50/bbl in 2016-20 along with no growth in spending from 2016 levels (excluding the additional cost of NTP initiatives but including implementation of the NTP non-oil revenue measures). Oil prices of at least cCUS$65/bbl would be required if spending is not disciplined or revenue targets are missed by c50%, in our view. Blueprint for fiscal measures lacks details The approved NTP initiatives will have a total fiscal cost of SAR268bn (USS71.5bn; 11.6% of GDP) spread over five years (annually, SAR54bn equivalent