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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014944

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to the credibility of online reviews, 4) Instant Book transition puts pressure on revenue growth, and 5) mobile monetization headwinds. Upside risks to our price objective are: 1} improved mobile monetization 2} major OTA sign on for instant booking 3) high non-hotel shopper dollar capture and 4) improved global macro environment. Trivago NV (TRVG) Our PO of $15 is based on a 3.5x 2018E EV/Sales multiple. We note that 3.5x is roughly in line with the lead generation peer group average 2018E EV/Sales multiple. We think our EV/Sales multiple is warranted as a balance between Trivago's higher growth and lower profitability. Our price objective is supported by our DCF analysis. Downside risks to our price objective are: 1) Growing competition, 2) Elevated marketing spend, 3) High Customer concentration, 4) Macro and FX risks, and 5) Potential for loss of hotel inventory. Twitter (TWTR) Our $14.5 price objective is based on 12x our 2018 EBITDA estimate, which reflects a discount to the online media group (13x). We believe the Twitter platform has slowing user and revenue growth and as such, we expect the stock to trade at a sustained discount to online media peers, with potential M&A adding some offsetting downside support. Downside risks to our PO are: 1) decelerating user growth that may raise concerns on long-term revenue opportunity, 2) pressure on usage due to emergence of competing services, 3) new ad initiatives may not perform well, resulting in lower advertiser demand for Twitter ads, 4) monetization of logged-out users and third party application users are slow to materialize, and 5} on a EV/EBITDA basis Twitter is more attractive today than in the past, but stock remains subject to multiple compression. Upside risks to our PO are: 1) User adds could ramp on new product initiatives in the 2H, and accelerating user growth may increase optimism on long-term revenue opportunity, 2) with new demographic targeting initiatives, Twitter is able to capture more TV doll

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Independent research project. Not affiliated with the U.S. Department of Justice, FBI, any government agency, or Anthropic. All analytical text on this site is AI-generated (Claude, Anthropic) and iteratively fact-checked against source documents, but may contain errors. Verify all claims against linked EFTA sources before citing.
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