Cheapest tail-risk Hedges Adarsh Sinha Ralph Axel Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) MLPF&S [email protected] [email protected] Gabriele Foa Tony Morriss MLI (UK) Merrill Lynch (Australia) [email protected] [email protected] Shuichi Ohsaki Merrill Lynch (Japan) [email protected] Tail-risk Hedges ¢ Four tail risks for 2017: 1) US deregulation, 2} EZ risk premia rises; 3) weaker bulk commodity prices; 4) steeper and more volatile yield curve in Japan. ¢ Position for normalization of swap spreads; 30s50s BTP flattener; long EUR/HUF vol; long AUD/USD digital puts; 1y10s20s conditional bear steepener in Japan. There are three key lessons on tail risks from 2016: 1) tail-risk probabilities are generally “fatter” than commonly assumed (Brexit and Trump’s victory); 2) hedging tail risks even in a world of low implied volatilies is hard if the directional implications are unclear (equity puts for a Trump victory); 3) investors worry about tail risks closer to the events — Chart 72 shows the biggest perceived tail risks, according to our Fund Manager Survey, were either during the event itself (China recession worries alongside capital outflows) or at most a few months in advance (Brexit and the US election). Looking ahead to 2017, we believe tail-risk hedging will be more important than ever, but that investors should be sufficiently forward looking and focus on those where there is clarity about the directional implications. We highlight four such opportunities in this section, specifically: 1) US deregulation; 2) return of Euro zone risk premia; 3) China- linked commodity prices weakening sharply; and 4) Japan’s yield curve targeting triggering a steeper curve and volatility increase. Chart 72: Biggest tail-risk, percentage of respondents in Global Fund Manager Survey Oct-16 EU disintegration : i Sep-16 Republican wins White House Global FMS biggest “tail risk Aug-16 Republican wins White House (past 12 months) Jul-16 Republican wins White House Jun-16 | Brexit