The role of fundamentals From a purely mechanical perspective, we could stop the analysis here and choose those currencies with better risk-reward prospects according to the metrics so far described. However, in order to analyze carry trades with relatively short investment horizon, we need to complement our analysis with our views on future exchange rates dynamics. We expect US rates to continue moving higher and the USD to strengthen across the board due to easier US fiscal policy and significant uncertainty regarding foreign policy. In EM, we think LatAm is the region that will suffer the most in the new global scenario, followed by Asia. We find EEMEA relatively more resilient to US driven shocks. We want to avoid countries with high financing needs (i.e., high fiscal and current account deficits). We also prefer trades with neutral commodity exposure. Since carry trades tend to underperform when US rates are moving higher and the USD strengthens, we want at least to avoid USD funded carry trades, crowded carry trades and currency crosses highly exposed to the USD factor. Hedging the USD factor leaves us with the pure carry exposure, which by being a price factor, is also related to standard measures of risk, as well as idiosyncratic factors. Best carry trade: Cherry picking among rotten cherries Given our views, and focusing on those trades where ex-ante high carry is consistent with ex-ante expected returns, we choose our best carry trades across EM and DM. Since DM currencies offer very low carry vs the USD, there are not many attractive carry opportunities in DM in a strong USD environment, so much so that the most attractive carry proposition is simply to go long USD/JPY. Since this trade is mostly predicated on a strong USD view and is being developed in other sections of this report we refer the reader to those sections (please see: USD/JPY will the main beneficiary of Trump win, FX: GOP sweep emboldens core USD/JPY view, Long EUR/JPYAsia: short JPY/KRW).