Origins February 24 — 26, 2017 PROJECT An Origins Project Scientific Workshop ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY Challenges of Artificial Intelligence: Envisioning and Addressing Adverse Outcomes 3) WAR & PEACE Al, Military Systems, and Stability (Contributions from Eric Horvitz, Elon Musk, Stuart Russell, others) Military applications have long been a motivator for funding scientific R&D, and for developing and fielding the latest technical advances for defensive and offensive applications. We can expect to see a rise in the use of Al advances by both state and non-state actors in both strategic and tactical uses, and in wartime and peace. Al advances have implications for symmetric and asymmetric military operations and warfare, including terrorist attacks. Advances in such areas as machine learning, sensing and sensor fusion, pattern recognition, inference, decision making, and robotics and cyberphysical systems, will increase capabilities and, in many cases, lower the bar of entry for groups with scarce resources. Al advances will enable new kinds of surveillance, warfighting, killing, and disruption and can shift traditional balances of power. Two areas of concern taken together frame troubling scenarios: e Competitive pressures pushing militaries to invest in increasingly fast-paced situation assessment and responses that tend to push out human oversight, and lead to increasing reliance on autonomous sensing, inference, planning, and action. e Rise of powerful Al-power planning, messaging, and systems by competitors, adversaries, and third parties that can prompt war intentionally or inadvertently via sham or false signaling and news. The increasing automation, coupled with time-critical sensing and response required to dominate, and failure to grapple effectively with false signals are each troubling, but taken together appear to bea troubling mix with potentially grave outcomes on the future of the world. Concerning scenarios can be painted that involve