KEsu Origins February 24 — 26, 2017 PROJECT An Origins Project Scientific Workshop ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY Challenges of Artificial Intelligence: Envisioning and Addressing Adverse Outcomes colleague and drastically different from the one seen by a member of another nation state, or a supporter of a different political party, or someone in a different consumer profile category. Al ATTACKS ON SOURCES AND IDENTITY Messaging and persuasion promises to be amplified by the use of simulated yet believable, realistic, yet synthetic audio, photos, and even video that make believable, persuasive content to the next level. Beyond influencing citizens and affecting democracy, such content, including false signaling, can be injected in sequences with careful timing so as to influence leaders (or machines themselves over time) to create crises, or even escalations to frank warfare. So, messaging and persuasion promises to be assisted and amplified by the use of simulated yet believable, realistic, yet synthetic content, audio, photos, and even video that make believable, persuasive content to the next level. Over the several decades, extrapolations of research we see today lead to the following: e Generative models that produce audio or video of anyone saying anything. There is already substantial work on “style transfer” as well as photorealistic generative models in many domains. Speech synthesis is becoming similarly competent. It is inevitable that we will be able to make synthetic video and audio that is completely indistinguishable from the real thing. e Generative models that produce coherent text content that appears as if has been written by a human. Such generative content will be able to appear if the content was written by a particular person. For example, in 2030 it will likely to possible for anyone to write a 4 paragraph email that reads like it was written by your close friend. e Adaptive botnets, worms, or viruses that use modern machine learning techn