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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014603

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Exhibit 85: Moody’s Liquidity Stress Index and Exhibit 86: Cumulative US High Yield Debt Default Rates Maturity by Year Leading indicators suggest the path of defaults for high Less than 10% of existing debt matures in the next yield is lower. two years. Index (%) Trailing 12-Month Rate (%) Cumulative Maturity (%) 25 ——— Composite Liquidity Stress Index ° r 16 100 r +a Yield Bonds dy = — — — ~Speculative-Grade Issuer-Weighted Default Rate (Right) | 90 m Bank Loans 86 a t 14 20 H \ | 80 r 12 \! | 70 a 15 i i a0 \ i 1 ys ot 10 +4 toys 5 40 x i ‘ o 33 1 Can Vi 4 5 - / * A | 20 aD TS La bee www w f 8 U 10 ~ She 2 10 7 i “uf 4 7 | 7 ;¢ | 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 or later Data through November 30, 2016. Data as of December 31, 2016. Note: Moody’s Liquidity Stress Indexes fall when corporate liquidity appears to improve and rise Source: Investment Strategy Group, JP Morgan. when it appears to weaken. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Moody’s. experiencing liquidity problems or are at risk of risk, given that less than 10% of existing debt breaching financial covenants. As seen in Exhibit matures in the next two years. Of equal importance, 85, Moody’s composite Liquidity Stress Index interest coverage stands near all-time highs today, (LSI} began to deteriorate in advance of previous in stark contrast to the period preceding the default cycles. Third, the commodity sectors of the __ financial crisis (see Exhibit 87}. This point is further high yield universe—which collectively generated illustrated by Exhibit 88, which shows that today’s a staggering 85% of last year’s defaults—are high yield universe is much healthier than the pre- recovering along with oil prices. Keep in mind crisis cohort, regardless of measure. Keep in mind that the par-weighted default rate excluding that low-rated CCC bonds represented just 8% of these sectors was just 0.5% last year, a fraction high yield issuance last year, a 14-year low.'"® of the

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