by remaining overweight US corporate high yield Exhibit 78: Fiscal Stance of Advanced Economies credit versus investment grade fixed income and by _ Fiscal austerity in developed markets has reversed in funding various tactical tilts from their high-quality recent years. bond allocation. While most investment grade umbenogGouttties mTightened m Remained Neutral = Loosened bonds may have uninspiring tactical prospects, we = ] emphasize that investors should not completely x 5 8 ; abandon their bond allocation in search of higher - ° yields. As the last several years have reminded 2 i us, investment grade fixed income serves a vital nd strategic role in the portfolio, due to its ability to hedge against deflation, reduce portfolio volatility 5 and generate income. In the sections that follow, we review the " specifics of each fixed income market. 5 US Treasuries , 20m 2012 2013 2014 2015 =—S(2016 While 2016 began as a bumper year for US . . . . Data as of December 31, 2016. Treasuries, it ended in a rout. The yield on 10-year source: investment Strategy Group, IMF. Treasury bonds, for example, reached an all-time $$ low of just 1.36% by the middle of last year before jolting higher by more than one percentage point geopolitical events—such as the UK and Italian by year-end. As a result, investors’ nearly double- referenda—and the results of the US election. digit gains devolved into a small loss. Even worse, __ Finally, the deleterious impact of depressed interest the bulk of the rate increase occurred in just the rates on banking sector profitability has raised the last three months of 2016, generating a 7% loss for hurdle for global central banks to cut interest rates the quarter that has been exceeded less than 1% of — further and/or increase the scale of QE programs. In the time historically since 1981. turn, market focus has shifted toward the eventual We expect rates to continue to increase, albeit tapering of BOJ, ECB and BOE accommodation, at a slower pace