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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014597

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Exhibit 75: UK Cash Merger and Acquisition of capital outflows from emerging markets— Announcement Pipeline conditions that have historically constituted a stiff Continued inbound M&A activity could benefit the pound. headwind to their currencies. 6-Month Rolling Sum, $ bn These risks are magnified by the uncertainty 150 5 surrounding the incoming US administration’s Capital Into the UK _ . P | {cto trade policies. Fears of protectionism have already m0 negatively impacted the currencies of China and 5 Mexico—the two largest sources of manufacturing exports to the US—with the peso and Chinese 04 renminbi down 11.6% and 2.3%, respectively, since the election. 50 - Even so, we do not think a broad tactical short in emerging market currencies is appealing at this “100 Sa |: Out of the UK stage. Despite the small rally last year, emerging | —— Net Maa ~ ounieprin market currencies remain attractively valued (see 150 = 4.8 . ‘ ‘ — May-16 Junt6 JuH6 Aug16 Sep-16 Oct16 Nov-l6 Dec-16 Exhibit 76), particularly given their enticing 5% data through December, 2016 yield differential to the US dollar. Moreover, the Note: October 2016 outbound M&A adjusted to exclude stock portion of British American new US administration may prove to be more Tohatro sdakeover of Reynolds, measured in its actions than its rhetoric—a non- Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg. negligible risk that could revive sentiment and OO AAT NT __ HIT prove prospects for emerging market currencies. The Mexican peso, in particular, could benefit in that event. through to higher domestic inflation. In turn, For now, we remain tactically positioned to higher UK interest rates would make sterling- benefit from further renminbi weakness given our denominated assets more appealing to foreign long-standing concerns about China’s economic investors and support the currency. vulnerabilities and the likelihood of looser policy, Finally, while sterling certainly has scope to policy mistakes and capital outflow

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