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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014590

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Exhibit 63: Relative Performance of "Stable” and Exhibit 64: Spain 5-Year Credit Default Swap and “Volatile” EAFE Stocks Relative Equity Performance Investors have recently shifted toward firms more exposed The dramatic reduction in Spanish default risks suggests to the business cycle. equity valuations have scope for upside. Relative Return (%) Price Ratio (July 24, 2012 = 100) Basis Points 8 5 Stable 150 0 = Volatile ° 2%, 6 140 y tl a aed ] 100 “ 4 130 | i" if bat p i taf 2 on | t ; inh . | 300 i | o + U : : : i 400 = 110 + 4 | 5 | L 500 100 = | 600 90 ——— MSCI Spain vs. MSCI EMU (Sector-Adjusted) L 700 6 : — — — — Spanish CDS Spread (Right, Inverted) | Last 3 2016-to-Date 5 Years 10 Years 1987-2007 = Since 1987 Months TTT 80 800 Annualized Returns 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Data as of October 31, 2016. Data through December 31, 2016. Note: Equally weighted USD-hedged returns relative to the developed markets {ex-US). Stable Source: Investment Strategy Group, MSCI, Datastream. and volatile stocks are drawn from the large-cap universe. Stability is measured using a model based on return on equity, earnings growth, financial leverage and beta. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Empirical Research Partners. has both hobbled bank profits—which represent The risks to our base case are skewed mildly a third of EuroStoxx 50 earnings—and boosted to the upside. After underperforming most equity equity valuations. But with ECB policy unlikely markets in 2016, Eurozone equities have room to to become any more accommodative, additional play catch-up. Moreover, the passing of long-feared valuation expansion can no longer be taken for French and German elections could compress granted. Instead, the onus for Eurozone equity today’s elevated equity risk premium, although upside now rests with earnings. political uncertainty is likely to remain high in the Here, the prospects are favorable for several interim. Finally, investors’ recent shift toward firms reasons. Fi

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