Exhibit 55: US Equity Fund Flows and Change in Exhibit 56: The AAIl Bullish Investor Sentiment 10-Year Treasury Yield Lack of investor euphoria is a contrarian positive for stocks. Bond returns can influence flows into equity funds. Percentage Points, YoY % of Assets, 3-Month Moving Average % Bullish, 52-Week Average 4 —— Change in 10-Year Yield 8 60 = = = = = Equity Minus Bond Flows (Right) 3 6 655 u 4 50 1 H ! 2 45 ° Per RY ay ; id Vio 40 | 3 “ee i ot | 5 n F u ’ -2 35 3 -4 30 414 6 2 5 -8 20 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Data through December 31, 2016. Data through December 31, 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, ICI. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, American Association of Individual Investors. seen in 2013-14, providing scope for upside (see Exhibit 57: Non-Dealer US Equity Index Futures Exhibit 57). If bull markets “die on euphoria” as Positioning Sir John Templeton observed, then these measures There is scope for increased US equity positions. argue we have not yet reached the apex. $bn A rare technical analysis signal corroborates 140 that view. As shown in Exhibit 58, the Coppock 120 curve—an intermediate-length momentum signal— 00 has generated only 17 buy signals over the past 71 80 years, but collectively they have provided attractive By low-risk entry points for long-term investors. If a we took the median path of S&P 500 prices after a past signals, it would imply the market gains 9% om | this year with 88% odds of a positive outcome. Of a particular note, Coppock buy signals on the NYSE, nl Russell 2000 and FTSE All-World Index were also o triggered in November, even before the post-election Mert 2012 2013 2014 2015 one rally. For all the reasons discussed above, we accord neta through December, 2016 a25% probability to our good-case scenario of the Source: Investment Strategy Group, CFTC, Goldman Sachs Securities Division Equity S&P 500 reaching 2,450 by