Exhibit 45: China Economic Activity Measures to expand by 6.0-6.75% in 2017, although actual Actual growth is likely lower than official figures. GDP growth will likely be lower (see Exhibit 45). og YaV’3-MInth Moving Average The risks to our outlook are skewed to the 18 downside for two reasons. First, the new direction 16 . Ha of US trade policy remains uncertain and could ‘a Ad \ nA i \ have a sizable impact. For instance, a 15% tariff . as \i MN ir would mechanically reduce China’s GDP by 0.9%. nw i! Na China could respond by ramping up leverage, wae kt \ [ *~ letting its currency depreciate faster and injecting a7 XN \i Nts-< more fiscal stimulus, but that could risk further Wi ey : ; : : 8 ‘' Sy imbalances in the economy while also disrupting 4 erat Ow v~ “8 global financial markets. Second, striking the right 5 SSS a merging Advisors Grbllp Chita NET INAER balance between stimulative and contractionary Goldman Sachs China Activity Indicator measures is a hazardous endeavor. On the road, aon 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 as in government policy, accelerating and braking Aided at the same time greatly increases the risk of Source: Investment Strategy Group, Emerging Advisors Group, Goldman Sachs Global an accident. Investment Research. India India’s streak of strong growth continues. The both China and the US, such as Korea, Taiwan and economy expanded by an estimated 6.5% in Malaysia, would be particularly vulnerable. 2016, making it the fourth consecutive year of While the net effect of these competing forces GDP growth in excess of 6.0%, a rare feat that is positive in our base case, the risks are tilted to India’s economy shares only with China’s. Growth the downside. would likely have been even higher, were it not for the “demonetization” scheme the government China introduced in November 2016. In a surprise China continues to drive its economy with move, the government announced that large- one foot on the gas pedal and the other on the denomina