Exhibit 34: US GDP per Hour Worked Exhibit 35: Goldman Sachs US Current We expect a rebound in productivity growth from Activity Indicator generational lows. Economic activity accelerated in the second half of 2016. % YoY Annualized % Change 4 3.0 5 | 25 25 3d | 24 20 4 an 16 15 1 06 1.0 ot 1: -| 0.0 — 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 Average: January—-May Average: June-November November Reading Data through 2015. Data as of November 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, OECD. Note: The current activity indicator is the first principal component of real-activity indicators, expressed in GDP-equivalent units. This is the growth signal in the main high-frequency indicators for the US economy. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. near zero and inflation expectations still below Section III, Global Commodities). With none of levels compatible with its inflation target, the the typical signs of economic contractions flashing Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates two or three red, we accord a 15% probability of a recession in times in 2017, below the historical average pace. 2017, roughly in line with historical average risk. On this point, it is worth remembering that the Against this backdrop, we expect US real GDP Federal Reserve originally projected four hikes by — growth to accelerate from last year’s moderate the end of 2016, yet enacted only one in December. 1.6% pace, reaching 1.9-2.7% in 2017. There are Thus, even if the Federal Reserve does raise rates three key drivers to this story: fading headwinds, three times this year, it will have delivered those a resilient US consumer and supportive policy. We four hikes over two years instead of just one. discuss each below. Lastly, although a recession created by an external shock is always a risk, the probability we | Fading Headwinds place on a hard landing in Europe and/or China The combination of falling oil prices and a