Middle East Conflicts and Tensions Persist: The the immigration of Arabs and North Africans Middle East will remain a source of conflict for to Europe and, to a lesser extent, the US, have years to come. Many countries have weak or increased the incidence of terrorism in the West. collapsing nation-state structures with varying In 2016, there were five key terrorist incidents degrees of civil war. As Zalmay Khalilzad, in the US and 15 in Europe, including a December former ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and 19 attack when a truck rammed into a Christmas the United Nations, and president of Gryphon market in Berlin.** Some of the terrorists Partners, wrote recently, “the national borders responsible were inspired by ISIL,** and some were devised by Western powers for Iraq and Syria, in lone-wolf Islamic extremists who had lived in their particular, are not standing up well to the test of respective countries for years.*? With a growing time ... and Pakistan’s policies have contributed number of refugees in Europe, it is highly likely to Afghanistan’s precarious condition.”” Iran that this pace of terrorism will continue. and Saudi Arabia compete for influence in the Terrorist attacks and geopolitical tensions in region, and the Sunni-Shia divide that was not a the Middle East take more than their immediate geopolitical factor 40 years ago will continue to human toll. While consumer confidence in the escalate tensions in the region. US is now above the pre-global financial crisis Another potential risk in the region is the peak of July 2007 (see Exhibit 25), Gallup Poll dismantling of the Iran nuclear deal by the Trump data shows that dissatisfaction remains at a very administration.”* In the absence of a deal, Iran high level, similar to that at the beginning of would return to building its nuclear capabilities, the global financial crisis. As shown in Exhibit thereby increasing the risks of a military strike by 26, the dissatisfaction rate increased steadily in Isr