While populism is on the rise and the support The Wall Street Journal reports that the for such parties has increased, we do not think that “Obama administration considers North Korea these movements will threaten the viability of the to be the top national security priority for the Eurozone in 2017. In fact, in response to Brexit, incoming administration.”® Nuclear weapons we believe that Eurozone policymakers will take a —_ already in place, long-range ballistic missile hard line with Britain to make sure other countries capabilities in development, and an unpredictable do not think it realistic to manage an exit that and provocative leader are a deadly combination. retains all the benefits while shouldering none of North Korea will remain a serious risk for the the costs. foreseeable future. Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Russian Adventurism Intensifies: While attention We rely on the insights of external experts has been focused on Russia’s adventurism in Syria, to formulate our geopolitical views. They the frozen conflict in Ukraine remains intact, with include members of prominent research groups, increasing violations of the Minsk agreements think tanks and universities as well as former of 2014 and 2015.° Since the first agreement government officials, both in the US and abroad. in September 2014, nearly 10,000 people have So informed, we highlight activity in North Korea, _ been killed,®” and most recently, Russian-backed Russia and the Middle East among our group of separatists attempted to break through Ukrainian risks with high probability but uncertain impact. government lines. In response to such lack of progress and concerns about further Russian North Korean Belligerence Continues: North aggression in the region, the heads of North Korea’s unpredictable and belligerent military Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member activities have continued unabated. In early 2016, countries agreed, at a summit in Warsaw in North Korea announced that it had t