Exhibit 24: US Real GDP During the Longest Post-WWII Recoveries Four of the five tightening cycles that did not trigger a recession occurred during the three longest recoveries in the post-WWII period. Beginning of Recovery = 100 160 ——— Mar-61 Heer iecenion ttattiecssin Dec-82 150 Mar-91 Aug-61-Nov-66 CAGR: 4.9% Current (Jun-08) Did NOT Trigger 140 Recession CAGR: 4.4% Mar-83—Aug-84 | — ss 120 CAGR: 2.1% — no 4 ee 100 Ae @ Denotes Beginning of Fed Tightening Cycle Fi ewassion © Denotes End of Fed Tightening Cycle a 7 4 8 D 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 Quarters After Recession Trough Data as of December 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, National Bureau of Economic Research. In our 2016 Outlook and our 2016 Imsight report, | vote against immigration from Eastern Europe, the Walled In: China’s Great Dilemma, we stated that | Middle East and North Africa, as well as against China was unlikely to have a hard landing over the — the bureaucracy of the European Union. next two years (i.e., 2016 and 2017). We believe The increasing enthusiasm for populist parties the view still holds. We do not expect a hard in Europe raises two questions. First, will any of landing in China that would destabilize the US the more extremist parties win enough support to economy in 2017, but the risks grow significantly break away from the European Union? In France, in 2018 and 2019. As we discuss below, China may for example, upcoming elections in May 2017 are nevertheless represent a geopolitical risk in 2017. likely to pit Francois Fillon of Les Républicains Historically, since WWII, the odds of a against Marine Le Pen of the far right Front recession occurring over a 12-month period National. Le Pen has promised a referendum on have been 18%. Our composite recession model, whether France should stay in the European Union, incorporating end-of-year financial and economic and, should she win, questions about the viability data, estimates the probability of a recession in of the E