Exhibit 19: US Equity Volatility Spikes in equity volatility have corresponded with major global shocks. VIX Level 30 ) Global Financial Crisis 80.9 80 4 (2) First Greek Bailout (11/20/08) G) Debt Ceiling, S&P Downgrade, [ 70 -| Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis @) Greek Default i 60 + G) SIL, Ebola 50 (6) Renminbi Depreciation SPX: -42% (1) ann earn 107 ad j | (8/24/15) a 30 | ie Tea a era aor) xa ie SPX: Mh py 12% 13% n 18.8 sex: 10M ' © | % al wens nero wim) 1928/12 115 12.0 mel (8/22/14) (7/17/15) "005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Data through December 31, 2016. Note: The red arrows show the S&P 500's (SPX's) peak-to-trough declines around each episode. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg. another shock to the financial markets, resulting One- and Five-Year Expected in the tightening of financial conditions in the Total Returns US in mid-2015 and early 2016, with US equities dropping by more than 10% in both periods. The Investment Strategy Group began producing Exhibit 19 provides a time line of shocks, one- and five-year annualized expected total which, in all likelihood, dampened the pace of the _ returns for major asset classes in our 2013 US recovery. Outlook. Since then, our key message has been to stay invested in US equities despite the low In Summary returns we have expected for the asset class. As we review the six theories that could account Our recommendation has been driven by a low for the notably slow pace of this recovery, we probability of recession, a reasonable probability believe that all have some merit. Recovering of upside for equities, zero expected returns for from the hangover from the deepest recession cash and negative expected returns for bonds. since the Great Depression took a little longer. We have presented these one- and five-year Demographics have not been favorable. annualized expected returns to: a) provide more Productivity growth appears lower, but that fact context for our investment recomme