- we : GDP growth by about 0.7 percentage point, similar _ 4 to their estimate reported in our Outlook last year. yy — { Of course, not all experts believe that there is 4 , a mismeasurement problem. Notable among them / <p y j is Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago, > Y. i TYR who raises four points in making this case.*° | ‘ 2 First, he states that the productivity slowdown a Bg ~ has been global in nature and unrelated to L! \Vs oe. \ 4 countries’ consumption or production intensities = ow “ Sn fe of information and communication technology. ' eC | ‘. : Second, he states that estimates of consumer surplus y “Sn are too small relative to his estimates of lost GDP : due to slower productivity growth. Third, he argues that if such mismeasurement existed, the growth rate . a in the information and communication technology Bre Believe tial piodaeuin ty in sector would be a multiple of its stated growth rate. health care is underestimated. Finally, while he acknowledges that gross domestic Consider IBM’s Watson Health, income has been higher than GDP since 2004 and an artificial intelligence system the gap might reflect the higher wages of workers that can read 200 million pages who are producing non-market digital services, he . does not believe that this difference is evidence of of text in 3 seconds. As of 2015, mismeasured GDP because the trend started earlier Watson had amassed 315 billion than the slowdown in productivity growth. data points representing health A somewhat similar line of reasoning has been records, lab results, genomic presented by Byrne, John Fernald of the Federal tests and clinical studies. The Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Marshall . , Reinsdorf of the IMF in a paper titled “Does the By stem DLO Ge Sem auc nisicaces United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a against its ever-growing database Measurement Problem?”*’ While they agree that and recommends customized productivity growth has been mismeasured in the treatment options