Exhibit 8: Growth in US Real GDP Across Post- Exhibit 9: Growth in US Real GDP per Person in WWII Expansions the Labor Force Across Post-WWII Expansions In this recovery, GDP has grown at half the average pace of © But when adjusted for labor force trends, this recovery has prior expansions. actually been in line with the average of past expansions. Cumulative Growth (%) Cumulative Growth (%) 60 eo — -02 1954 — = — -03 1980 60 5 ee 021954. = ae — = 03-1980 —— 021958 9 ———041982 ——071958 9 ——04 1982 50 Q1 1961 --——-01 1991 50 -| Q1 1961 --——-011991 —— 04 1970 042001 —— 04 1970 04 2001 —011975 ———02 2009 eew 011975 9 ——0?22009 40 wat 40 ¢ a & 30 ra 30 4 ye “a we a7 20 a 20 7c. 10 o7 10 | ~ ——— = 0 La ae 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 Quarters After Trough Quarters After Trough Data as of 03 2016. Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream, National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream, National Bureau of Economic Research. old today, however, is much healthier and more vibrant than a 65-year-old in 1935 and has many Exhibit 10: US Labor Force Participation Rate more years of active life that can reduce the decline Both cyclical and structural factors have contributed to a in the growth rate of the working-age population. _ decline in the participation rate from the 2000 peak. Furthermore, this cohort is quite productive % relative to new entrants into the labor force. 70 Similarly, immigration reform can help offset the 68 | 67.3 decline in working-age population growth. Both 66 factors depend on policy changes, and we do not 64 | have any definitive reason to be either optimistic or gy fap pessimistic at this time. a The second component of the unfavorable 63 demographics perspective has been the drop in 5 labor force participation, particularly among ss males. Exhibit 10 shows the rapid growth in labor : force participation that occurred as the baby a zs 50 + boom generation