Exhibit 5: Change in US Personal Savings Rate Exhibit 6: Ratio of US Household Net Worth to Surrounding Historical Recessions Disposable Income The increase in the personal savings rate in this recovery Real estate price and financial asset gains have boosted the has been unusually large. ratio to near pre-crisis highs. Deviation from Start of Recession (Percentage Points) % 8 Historical Range 700 —— Median 8 <== <Curtent A 839 44 i an a _ 600 sO wget H¥ \ ween 63 24 av oe” | a 0 Kae Ss 4 500 - 2 3.4 4 400 6 8 6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 300 Quarters Relative to Start of Recession 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015 Data through 03 2016. Data through 03 2016. Note: Quarter 0 marks the start of each recession since 1950, defined as the NBER recession Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream. cycle start. The cycle is measured from the start of each recession until the beginning of the next recession. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream, National Bureau of Economic Research. The anemic (but steady) pace of this recovery A Hangover from a Crisis has fueled a debate about its causes. The theories Proponents of the “hangover” theory suggest fall into six categories: that recoveries after a major financial crisis generally have been slower. In their book, This e A “hangover” from the global financial crisis"! Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial * “Secular stagnation” due to unfavorable Folly, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff demographics use historical data from 66 countries between e “Secular stagnation” due to declining 1810 and 2010 to demonstrate that, historically, productivity growth recoveries following a major financial crisis have ¢ Mismeasurement of GDP statistics been markedly slower than other recoveries. * Poor policies in Washington Fundamentally, one can argue that ¢ A steady onslaught of external shocks households deleverage for a long time to increase precautionary savings, and corporation