Eurozone political calendar 2017 4 December: Italian constitutional referendum Our base case is a close “No” vote where Renzi stays and no snap election, given current polls and the outstanding electoral reform court case. BTPs and the banks recaps remain a tail risks for the Italian economy, although the ECB extending QE should help. A big “No” vote would boost Five Star and undermine Renzi into 2018 elections, in our view. 4 December: Austrian presidential election Polls by public broadcaster ORF show the result as very close. Norbert Hofer is standing on an anti-immigrant platform against the moderate former Green leader Alexander Van der Bellen in a rerun of the May vote. The election of Freedom party candidate Norbert Hofer would make Austria the first nation to elect a head of state running on a far right platform since the EU began. 22/ 29 Jan: French Socialist Party presidential nominee elections If President Francois Hollande decides to run for re-election as the Socialist Party candidate (decision expected Dec 10th) he could be challenged by former Prime Minister Manuel Valls and Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg. Current second round polls for any combination of these candidates suggest likely Socialist nominee too close to call. 15 March 2017: Dutch elections Prime Minister Mark Rutte currently leads a “purple” coalition with the Dutch Labour party as main second party. But the latest polls suggest both parties could win fewer seats than they have now in 2017. That could make it more challenging to build a government given the need to secure at least 76/150 seats. In terms of who could lead that coalition, polls have Rutte’s People’s Party neck and neck with the anti- immigrant Freedom party led by populist Geert Wilders. Wilders has called for the Netherlands to leave the EU indicated he would call a referendum if elected. A Wilder-Rutte coalition also hasn’t been ruled out according to press reports. 23 April: French first round presidential elections