Equities: Add long Nikkei to EM Asia Global equity markets have gone in very different directions post the US election. EM have fared worst, Europe little changed, S&P at new all-time highs, the Russell and Nikkei on a tear higher. This is not how we were positioned so we need to ask the question of whether and what we need to change. Table 2: MSCI EM Asia at a 2PE point discount to other equity markets Chart 27: Japan relatively cheap at 14.1x fwd earnings Mec im MSCIJapan MSCIEurope — MSCIUS 50 fwd PE 12m fwdPE ‘12mfwdPE 12m fwd PE 45 —MSCI Japan 12m fwd PE Latest 11.9 1a 143 17.0 40 Min 76 97 TA 104 35 Max 18.5 44.5 23.9 252 30 Av 11.5 18.2 140 15.9 SD 18 68 34 32 29 Z-score 0.2 -06 0.1 0.3 20 %ile 68% 31% 60% 73% 45 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, IBES 10 5 0 Sasi ssaeSSBSEBSBLENVS TLE ANNRNKRRNKRKRKRKRKRKRAKRKRNKRARA Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, IBES If we stand back from the noise and just look at the valuations, the US is the most expensive, MSCI Asia ex the cheapest in absolute terms. Our strategists see decent earnings growth likely to come through in EM Asia, and while there is upside to US earnings estimates from potential corporate tax cuts at least part of it is priced in. Savita Subrahamian has a target for the US of 2300 in her year ahead Euphoria or fiscal fizzle?, an upside of a less than 5%. Our European strategists have an upside of around 6%. So that leaves EM Asia and Japan (given our 20k target) as the stand outs according to our equity strategists. Indeed, the PE of Japan is towards the bottom end of the range since 2000. Sticking with EM Asia One of our concerns on EM was a more hawkish Fed and therefore a stronger USD. So we regarded our positions in those asset classes as something of a hedge to our EM positions. As we explained above we are keeping that stance as on our central scenario there is more to go and on a risk scenario where bond markets overshoot the USD is likely to follow. In the equity w